@political-news | 30 Jul 18 - 11:42
Wins the 24 June Presidential Election?
It's a lively question. It's a question everyone is curious about and they say something about everyone. I will try to present it to you in the direction of my own knowledge and research. But of course I will briefly explain how and where I analyze the information I have with him.
How do I analyze?
I am a person who likes to follow people's emotions and thoughts by reading comments from social circles and news sites. Because for me, the best questionnaire is that people turn their free thoughts into comments without being under pressure. After reading the news / share, I immediately start to scroll down the page and read the comments. If not all, I will read a lucrative amount and accordingly do a social analysis on my own. Of course, while doing this social analysis, you should also consider the target volume of the platform and platform. So I blend the information that I get and make a prediction based on my own and get a conclusion. Already the survey companies do this by way of question and answer, but if you are not sure which survey company you trust, you can go this way too.
Because there have been some surveys published recently. Before I entered the details too much, I roughly looked at it, and there was a lot of difference between the results and "Which is the right one among these?" I could not help but ask.
Survey firms' status in past elections.
Again in the previous elections, the survey companies published their pre-election results. The others, except a few of them, were a complete failure. It's hard not to believe that the parties they support are showing their votes high. Whether it's a party we're a fan of, or a party against, it's unpleasant.
If we come to the real issue;
I've always had realistic estimates of past elections. In this election, I also paid attention to the promises of the candidates / parties and their attitudes. According to this;
- There is confidence in AKP + MHP wing. Or they're acting like that, I'm not quite sure. As they are not worried about losing in the election, they are already saying that "We will win in the first round with a rate close to 55%". It's an estimate similar to previous elections. And in the referendum, the MHP + AKP partnership received "Yes" with about 52%. Of course the number of options is a little too much, so I guess this may be a little more shaky than the referendum. The Presidential Alliance, which will force 50% of the surveys instead of 40-45% of the surveyed firms. So I do not have 55% expectation nor 45%. For me, he's going to play between 48 and 51%.
- There is an enthusiasm in the CHP wing. They say they will win this time but they are not so sure "I think". They seem to know that they can not win. Shortly after the candidates were announced, and before the election work began, Muharrem had hoped many people to be candidates for İnce, but a few later events broke hopes a bit. So much so that Muharrem Sincer, while talking about Meral Akşener, "Akşener remains the second round," he said like an assistant. Although it sounds like a normal word, it left a great sadness behind the CHP elector. Another situation was that Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu did not want to elect some important names close to Muharrem İnce as parliamentarians again. As a matter of fact, this was the rumor that Kılıçdaroğlu got rid of his opponent in the party, and I think so. Of course, these situations will benefit the AK Party + MHP rather than the GOOD Party a little bit because it is obvious that the voters who are annoyed by the CHP are more likely to support Meral Akşener as a result of these events. There is no chance of supporting Erdogan.
- Good party wing already has holiday festivities. There is still a mass of 6 months to discuss, even if it is possible to participate in the election, and now there is a mass to choose and compete with the CHP. So much so that it will receive a lucrative rate and "already support the CHP if the second round," he took the word.
- I will not go into detail because the other candidates will not enter the top 3.
On the first round, I was saying that nobody can take this presidential election. Erdoğan remains at 48% and İnce receives around 25% of the CHP's own voters. The remaining 27% is shared between Akşener, Demirtaş and others. The election remained on the second round and Erdogan showed up against İnce. Even so, I thought that if the second round is left, the support for the government will be reduced and the currencies will jump. However, for whatever reason, I started to feel that your support has increased again. Both the promises of election and other speeches play a role in deciding the unstable election. Not too much, but Erdogan seems to be getting comfortable at 51% again.
With the prayer that we are good about our country and our nationality...